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TOPIC: DOV, so quiet ?

DOV, so quiet ? 13 Feb 2016 10:44 #6348

  • myownhedgefund
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I know you travel for work but we have a nice holiday weekend for comments.

Care to share your thoughts on our weakly worded OA press release ?

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DOV, so quiet ? 13 Feb 2016 17:16 #6360

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Weakly worded? Once again, it wasn't the wording that was the problem, it was the results. Do you know that Chis Centeno shoots an irritant into the joint before he injects cells. The irritant is simply dextrose but he found out it improves results, not sure of mechanism oif action but based on a concept called prolotherapy. Who knows, much off his results may be placebo related. Further justification for the FDAs stance on this. No more FDA conspiracy theories?

I really thought the OA trial would be a hit but it can only be a hit if it kicks placebo ass.It failed to do that but I hope it does better with the MRIs and longer term results.

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DOV, so quiet ? 13 Feb 2016 21:22 #6365

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WST...yes I know the results. I read them too. LOL

The one thing DOV didn't want was things like "suggest" and "may" ect.
Unfortunately the results so far also told us nothing. Sorry "hints" in the treated group.

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DOV, so quiet ? 13 Feb 2016 21:26 #6368

  • cytxer
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Remember when DOV disappeared for years, but then came back out of nowhere and started his spreadsheets?

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DOV, so quiet ? 14 Feb 2016 01:51 #6370

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Sorry cytxer...I think that more describes forgotmorthanuno who recently posted after a very long absence.

DOV has usually been a fairly rare poster. Both here and YMB.

While I have often disagreed with DOV's optimism I do not believe some suggestions of a more nefarious nature. Doesn't matter anyway what anyone post because in the end I think for myself as everyone should with any post or opinion !

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DOV, so quiet ? 14 Feb 2016 08:26 #6371

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I think DOV is disappointed with the OA interim data and the prospect of not able to find a partnership. R/s is now a reality to allow ATM to fund the company. So his worst scenario may come true now.

I am also very disappointed with what is going on.

Judging from this most recent changes in management (see company webpage)-Harris is now the top man in Japan and Shirihama (sp?) is gone; Cheri Rice is now in charge of the Barda project and Kesten appears to concentrate in the orphan indication. In my opinion, the OA indication will disappear, just like the cardio indication.

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DOV, so quiet ? 14 Feb 2016 11:01 #6372

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Yes, I was traveling last week and did not get home until Thursday night. I did have plenty of time to think about the OA press release and even had an e-mail exchange with Tiago. Given the current situation with the stock in the tank and a delisting event approaching, the press release was by far the worst on record. The 24 week ACT-OA results were one of our last hopes for new investors to come into the stock and perhaps lift the stock to a higher equilibrium price. Instead, the wording chosen by Dr. Marc Hedrick caused a complete misinterpretation of the data (if one wants to call it data) and a 25% drop in the stock price. Everyone read the results as being a failing trial.

"Key endpoints and trends observed thus far suggest that a beneficial effect MAY (or may not) be attributable to a single" injection. From there the meaning translates to: we will have to see what the 48 week results show, but hey, even if this trial bombs out, we still have the Scleroderma trial to bail us out. Then, when providing bullet points, number 3 and 4 should have been combined and explained in detail to avoid the misinterpretation that DID occur.

The truth behind the trial was that the results were actually good (maybe even very good), but the placebo effect was so strong that they masked the results of the treated groups. Tiago suggested that I search the internet to discover the magnitude of the placebo effect during the Visco trial, which was also very strong and yet ultimately resulted in FDA approval. I have not done any search work and frankly, he should have provided me with a link to it. It is not my fargin responsibility to research the internet to be able to understand the vagaries of their press release. Yes, I am pissed off and needed to take a few days before posting anything.

The bottom line on the trial is that the results were good and will be helpful in "business development discussions." Hedrick explained that comment as well as every other point in the press release. Like everyone else, I see little hope that even great news will lift the stock enough to avoid a reverse split. The final numbers will be in on Tuesday and it appears institutional ownership will be the lowest in the company's history. The large institutional investors, who have been helpful with their advice (and management has complied with their wishes) have not begun purchasing the stock. Phase II data was a potential turning point.

On the brighter side, there continues to be ample evidence the ADRC mixture of cells work well in numerous applications. The ED trial results were truly remarkable and will likely move through the next set of trials quickly in a relative sense. The MAP with Idis will begin producing revenue in the second quarter and sales in Japan are increasing. I think we all read where Hedrick believes the company will be profitable in 2018 as a result of these two areas of revenue growth. This means my spreadsheet is fairly accurate at least to that year. I will post an update after the March earnings call. This call will be a chance for management to redeem themselves and project confidence in their ability to raise non-dilutive capital to get us to profitability.

PS: I also like to see the FDA cracking down on stem cell treatment centers operating illegally in this country. Some day that should give Cytori a big head start.

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DOV, so quiet ? 14 Feb 2016 11:42 #6373

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Thanks for your comments...pretty much agree with everything.

I've been watching the institutional 13F's roll out as well and as you indicated no one cares. Cant say I really blame them.

So since many now feel the R/S is unavoidable the next big tar pit Cytori management has to avoid is doing one too small that allows the listing problem to resurface.

In all my years of investing I have never seen a company step in it as many times as this one. :really:

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DOV, so quiet ? 14 Feb 2016 13:13 #6374

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By now, it would be hard to believe CYTX (Rickey, et al) does not know r/s is unavoidable in the past year, when CYTX has been largely financed by toxic financing to avoid bankruptcy.

For CYTX to emerge into a new company, the last act should a r/s. Most of longs are probably victims. A lot of wealth may be totally gone.

However, after the r/s (hopefully a one for ten; a one for fifteen ?), I think CYTX pps may start to do well after a period of consolidation. I personally think the new CYTX should have a better future than it was.

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DOV, so quiet ? 14 Feb 2016 13:33 #6375

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myownhedgefund wrote:
In all my years of investing I have never seen a company step in it as many times as this one. :really:



Don't think for a second that these guys are stupid. Marc and Chris have proven they can take on all of us, and win. Demented sociopath level of :evil: smart... It's all by design, the question remains for what purpose.


Anything under 40 RS will go back near 1 $ as soon as dilution begins. It will be so fast and painful that today would be called the good ole days... My next prediction. Shorts will make a fast fortune.

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