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TOPIC: What if?

What if? 27 Feb 2018 13:47 #11402

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Today the latest Stem Cells Translational Medicine (Volume 7 Issue 3) came out, which had the paper in it of the Odense Group which performed the Lymphedema study on 10 patients (peer reviewed paper)- as is usual- results very promising and convincing. See PDF below.

John sent me some links over the week-end on the Marseille study on Fistula after Crohn´s, which I believe were more convincing than the Cx601 studies from Tigenix, which landed Tigenix shareholders a 600+ Mio purchase price ticket from Takeda. Mind you with fistula you cannot have a placebo effect- the fistula closes without relapse after a period of time or not. No subjectivity involved whatsoever.

Since these 2 examples are not the only evidence of the power of ADRC´s - what would the market cap of Cytori be if 2 conditions were met:

1. they would have +200 Mio cash
2. a good management team.

would the market cap be:
1. 225 Mio (i.e the cash plus the present market cap
or 2. much more?

Interesting question for Hedge.

File Attachment:

File Name: 2018-OdenseLymphedemaADRCStudy.pdf
File Size: 703 KB
Attachments:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

What if? 27 Feb 2018 14:36 #11403

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fas wrote: Today the latest Stem Cells Translational Medicine (Volume 7 Issue 3) came out, which had the paper in it of the Odense Group which performed the Lymphedema study on 10 patients (peer reviewed paper)- as is usual- results very promising and convincing. See PDF below.

John sent me some links over the week-end on the Marseille study on Fistula after Crohn´s, which I believe were more convincing than the Cx601 studies from Tigenix, which landed Tigenix shareholders a 600+ Mio purchase price ticket from Takeda. Mind you with fistula you cannot have a placebo effect- the fistula closes without relapse after a period of time or not. No subjectivity involved whatsoever.

Since these 2 examples are not the only evidence of the power of ADRC´s - what would the market cap of Cytori be if 2 conditions were met:

1. they would have +200 Mio cash
2. a good management team.

would the market cap be:
1. 225 Mio (i.e the cash plus the present market cap
or 2. much more?

Interesting question for Hedge.

File Attachment:

File Name: 2018-OdenseLymphedemaADRCStudy.pdf
File Size: 703 KB

/

This question will certainly require all of HF's talents at responding without giving a direct answer - LOL.

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What if? 27 Feb 2018 14:37 #11404

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Just now on Twitter:
Congratulations to Sobajima Clinic on milestone: 100th knee #osteoarthritis patient treated with Cytori Cell Therapy, facilitated by Japan’s new Regenerative Medicine Law

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What if? 27 Feb 2018 14:39 #11405

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Depends on more factors than what you have provided...at least to me.
Where does the $200 million come from ?
Addressable market/markets and pricing.
Who markets.
New management certainly cant do any worse...LOL Real experience ?
Margins ?
Acceptance by physicians and public.

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What if? 27 Feb 2018 14:42 #11406

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100 knees since starting ?
Wow...are we talking 250K to Cytori ? LOL Stop the presses.
Tell me when we get to 10,000 annually !!! Worldwide....and ramping

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What if? 27 Feb 2018 15:07 #11407

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myownhedgefund wrote: Depends on more factors than what you have provided...at least to me.
Where does the $200 million come from ?
Addressable market/markets and pricing.
Who markets.
New management certainly cant do any worse...LOL Real experience ?
Margins ?
Acceptance by physicians and public.

/

I told you so, but even I thought that he would give a better response -
however, the art of obfuscation is not easy. LOL

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What if? 27 Feb 2018 15:17 #11408

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Perhaps that is why your self professed stock picking record is so poor.
You don't give proper consideration to factors that would be important and rely more on company fluff and those who fulfill what you want to hear.

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What if? 27 Feb 2018 16:13 #11411

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myownhedgefund wrote: Perhaps that is why your self professed stock picking record is so poor.
You don't give proper consideration to factors that would be important and rely more on company fluff and those who fulfill what you want to hear.

/

Another weak response further avoiding Fas' original question, and unlike the cool HF, even expressing a touch of animosity and denigration towards one his long-time Lodge members - I must have touched a nerve with the word obfuscation. LOL.

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What if? 27 Feb 2018 16:29 #11412

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*** I must have touched a nerve with the word obfuscation. LOL.***

LOLOLOL, yeah, that's it.

Meantime flipped CELG in AH. thank you very much !!!

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What if? 27 Feb 2018 19:03 #11413

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myownhedgefund wrote: *** I must have touched a nerve with the word obfuscation. LOL.***

LOLOLOL, yeah, that's it.

Meantime flipped CELG in AH. thank you very much !!!


Is that last sentence just bragging, or rubbing it in, or BOTH - in any event, why don't you really prove your stock-picking prowess by giving us a tip before-hand in order to hold us over until our CYTX windfall - thanks Buddy.

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What if? 27 Feb 2018 20:07 #11414

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It wouldn't matter...you don't seem to want to learn
Sticking with CYTX...I said avoid the RO. It will get cheaper
I said worse case in December likely $0.22. Bottomed $0.215
A month later it printed $0.54...I said sell. Hasn't been that high since although momo's briefly flirted with it just above $0.50 giving another chance to sell.
What did you do ?
What about CYTXW....you were pumping it big time some time back...I said sell it while it still has some value...not a good play. Now $0.03.
What did you do ?
Somewhere along here there is something about a horse and water.
Anyone ? :grin: :whistle:

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What if? 27 Feb 2018 23:59 #11415

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The lymphedema trial was a good phase1 trial that warrants a phase2 continuation that is larger and addresses some of the limitations and questions raised. This will have to be undertaken by someone else apart from CYTX.

It shows/confirms that ADRC have a multitude of applications.

IT ALSO CONFIRMS THAT WE ARE THE TECHNOLOGY OF CHOICE FOR A WIDE RANGE OF QUALITY RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS WORLDWIDE WHO WISH TO STUDY ADRC.

Surely that alone has to be worth more than $12.6M market cap.

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What if? 28 Feb 2018 00:59 #11416

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Here is a What If?

What if autologous ADRC/SVF can heal refractory perianal fistulas in Crohn's disease at least as effectively as allogeneic expanded adipose-derived stem cells (Alosifel), for which Takeda paid Tigenix $650M.:yep:

Another What If?

What if the cost of treament (highly personalised) can be undertaken at a fraction of the cost of the allogeneic option?

Here is some info that we shareholders have to find for ourselves: no thanks to CYTX IR.

www.ecco-ibd.eu/publications/congress-abstract-s/abstracts-2017/item/op008-an-innovative-treatment-for-refractory-perianal-fistulas-in-crohn-s-disease-local-micro-reinjection-of-autologous-fat-and-adipose-derived-stromal-vascular-fraction.html

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29321063

decisionresourcesgroup.com/drg-blog/alofisel-much-needed-cost-effective-fistulizing-crohns-disease/

When looking at a development candidate/drug there are the financial fundamentals and the efficacy fundamentals. In this indication CYTX is in a great position with regard both.

As HF & WST would no doubtably point out (and rightfully so) there is also the issue of CYTX's financial position ............... there is a large number of cash rich companies that could buy CYTX for petty cash. Perhaps the question should be posed ........... Why has no BP/BB been successful in concluding a deal with CYTX?

Another question for management .......... are there any (additional to the Swiss) materially substantial individual investors/holders of unexercised units?
The following user(s) said Thank You: Tural

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What if? 28 Feb 2018 06:08 #11417

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Some good points in this thread from no placebo effect to rongsides links.
On the subject of fistula alone. Why did Olympus take close a look with their work and pass ? To my knowledge we have never gotten a answer there. Same as Astellas when they took a spin. Both of these major companies showed interest years ago. I would love to know the REAL answers.

As far as cost and at least similar of not better efficacy ...let alone the simple satisfaction a patient would know its their own cells....all factors that originally got me interested here. The only sad point here is failure in the pivotal trials.
Balance sheet...always a mess as I have complained about at nauseam.

Hidden large holders...maybe but someone is selling still and imho its not just the shorts who added 600K to their position in the first 2 weeks of February. Why do they keep adding short ?
Also if you want to discuss market cap ...yes its cheap...bozos are a dime a dozen. The street doesn't like them. Again, why ? Rongside points out market cap closed at 12.6 million.....consider fully diluted at 82 million shares and a $0.15 PPS the market cap is 12.3 million. Really not as crazy as it sounds. Management sold shares in the RO at 11.6 million.

Why Why Why ???
I wish we all knew.

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What if? 28 Feb 2018 08:12 #11419

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myownhedgefund wrote: Some good points in this thread from no placebo effect to rongsides links.
On the subject of fistula alone. Why did Olympus take close a look with their work and pass ? To my knowledge we have never gotten a answer there. Same as Astellas when they took a spin. Both of these major companies showed interest years ago. I would love to know the REAL answers.

As far as cost and at least similar of not better efficacy ...let alone the simple satisfaction a patient would know its their own cells....all factors that originally got me interested here. The only sad point here is failure in the pivotal trials.
Balance sheet...always a mess as I have complained about at nauseam.

Hidden large holders...maybe but someone is selling still and imho its not just the shorts who added 600K to their position in the first 2 weeks of February. Why do they keep adding short ?
Also if you want to discuss market cap ...yes its cheap...bozos are a dime a dozen. The street doesn't like them. Again, why ? Rongside points out market cap closed at 12.6 million.....consider fully diluted at 82 million shares and a $0.15 PPS the market cap is 12.3 million. Really not as crazy as it sounds. Management sold shares in the RO at 11.6 million.

Why Why Why ???
I wish we all knew.


Don't you think that the current market cap might have already considered the fully-diluted share count - common sense would say yes - at least we now know where you got your .15 target.

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What if? 28 Feb 2018 08:46 #11420

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***Don't you think that the current market cap might have already considered the fully-diluted share count - common sense would say yes - at least we now know where you got your .15 target. ***

Something I argued pre RO. Will the market be fooled by the preferred shares or will they price in the full dilution ?
Few thought it possible or at least posted here about it.
Note though the support at $0.22 at year end.
We need more info before $0.15 should be more seriously considered but it is possible and not much has to happen to justify it.

You must have slept well last night RS. You got your thinking cap on this morning.
What do you think of LOW this morning....have a low bid in for a flip but looking like first support holding. Day order only.
Also considering ACAD...serially blows up then recovers. I haven't had a chance to review their report last night so nothing in yet in terms of a order. We shall see.

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What if? 28 Feb 2018 08:58 #11421

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myownhedgefund wrote: ***Don't you think that the current market cap might have already considered the fully-diluted share count - common sense would say yes - at least we now know where you got your .15 target. ***

Something I argued pre RO. Will the market be fooled by the preferred shares or will they price in the full dilution ?
Few thought it possible or at least posted here about it.
Note though the support at $0.22 at year end.
We need more info before $0.15 should be more seriously considered but it is possible and not much has to happen to justify it.

You must have slept well last night RS. You got your thinking cap on this morning.
What do you think of LOW this morning....have a low bid in for a flip but looking like first support holding. Day order only.
Also considering ACAD...serially blows up then recovers. I haven't had a chance to review their report last night so nothing in yet in terms of a order. We shall see.


Cytx opened at .37 and then two minutes later traded some shares at .339 - it's tough to day trade this stock imo - not very familiar with ACAD.

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What if? 28 Feb 2018 09:07 #11422

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***Cytx opened at .37 and then two minutes later traded some shares at .339***

Market can be thin at times for CYTX....so quick, big % wise and sometimes weird trades happen at times.

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What if? 28 Feb 2018 09:13 #11423

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BTW...just for clarification, by LOW I meant LOWE's, the company.

I was hoping something closer to $85 was possible but bottomed at $86.75 and now $90.07
All well, don't get them all. LOL
Ordered cancelled

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What if? 28 Feb 2018 09:32 #11424

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myownhedgefund wrote: BTW...just for clarification, by LOW I meant LOWE's, the company.

I was hoping something closer to $85 was possible but bottomed at $86.75 and now $90.07
All well, don't get them all. LOL
Ordered cancelled


I thought that you were referring to "low" re CYTX.

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