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TOPIC: Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections

Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 03 Jan 2015 11:21 #3049

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Changes made to original spreadsheet:

Okyanos revenue for 2015 reduced to $3 million from $4 million (due to more non cardiac procedures being done at lower consumable pricing.

Japan revenue for 2015 reduced to $5 million from $6 million just to be more conservative, but acknowledging greater potential.

Lorem Vascular revenue reduced to $2 million from $5 million in 2015, but increased by $3 million in 2016. China approval will trigger a $5 million order, but shelf life concerns will cause a staggering of shipments and revenue recognition pushing the total out over additional quarters.

EU revenue increased from $250,000 to $750,000 to be more accurate

Government contract revenue for 2015 reduced from $12 million to $8 million recognizing that the pre-clinical expenses do not stop at the start of the human thermal burn trial. R&D expenses reduced by a commensurate $4 million.

Other interesting bits of information:

San Diego Celution 800 capacity is 20 to 25 units per month. There are Celution 800 units in the field that are on loan and can be moved around to make them available for the Star Trial and the ACT-OA trial. The BARDA Trial will use Celution next generation devices (CXT2) assembled in San Diego. All devices shipped to China will be assembled at the Deeside plant in Wales. Once the CXT2 device is ready to be assembled in Deeside, there will be no reasonable capacity limitations.

Jason Kolbert's Maxim update on Cytori dated 12/19/14 is attached. When I first read his revenue estimates for the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2015, I thought he misunderstood how the Barda revenue recognition process occurred. Surely he must be counting on the 3rd phase of the contract being awarded for a pivotal trial. NOT SO! Those numbers are there because Kolbert believes Barda will place orders from Cytori to forward deploy the CXT2 systems throughout the USA to be ready for that unspeakable event. The company does not support his assumption yet he did not remove the numbers in his latest update. Remnants of Calhoun pumping that possibility? Carelessness on Kolbert's part? Kolbert has Barda sources of intelligence? I think #1 and #2.
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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 03 Jan 2015 14:07 #3050

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that is always the problem with CYTX...the closer you come to the date what you expected years before ,the more you have to adjust downwards the numbers...now you have predictions of 142million for 2018-320million for 20189 and 463million for 2020...i bet the closer you come to those years ,the more you will have to adjust your numbers again...the only thing that will go up is the number of SHARES issued...

10 years ago,we never would have thought that we would only have 11million in revenues in 2014,but we all thought we would have 200 million in revenues by now....

but hey,i like the idea of projections only with cytx the chance that you will make those numbers is 1% or so...

good luck anyway ,DOV,you will need it with all the shares you have bought in the past and the massive dilution that is coming...
it's even remarkable that you are so positive about Cytx and their management considering the massive loss that you must have with your investment here...

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 03 Jan 2015 19:54 #3051

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DOV...do you have a breakout number for Okyanos cardiac only figures ? Cardiac in the past also had a wide range of 8k to 12k per consumable...any indication of where this number will fall in 2015 ?

Reduction in Japan and EU figures...are you using any conversions for likely currency effects ? Yen may be 140 and the Euro may be close to parity with the dollar by year end 2015.

Lorem....assumptions on consumable usage pure speculation until we see what a country by country roll out looks like. That 5 million order may last longer than one thinks to fully be realized.

EU revenue increased by 500K to be more accurate ? Care to elaborate ? A tripling to be more accurate means you were way off base before or maybe now. Why ?

Government contract revenue adjustment...makes sense.

JK...our pie in the sky analyst...LOL ! I'll suggest a #4 choice, DOV. He wants to make sure Maxim is in line for the next dilutive financing !!!

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 04 Jan 2015 05:07 #3052

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As the previous one-

now available on the web at Google sheets: DOVs spreadsheet

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 04 Jan 2015 05:23 #3053

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Oops- I have to make the link "shareable Dov´s shareable spreadsheet "- this new one should fit this category:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 04 Jan 2015 10:57 #3054

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Dis,

Remember this is your spreadsheet as much as anyone else's. I merely got it started.

BTW, if I were no confident about the future of Cytori, I would sell out my position. What amazes me is how many investors hate the company and the management, but continue to own the stock.

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 04 Jan 2015 11:18 #3055

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Hedge,

Prior to Okyanos receiving approval for additional therapies, Matt was projecting 600 cardiac patients being treated in 2015. Since then, I have heard the projections for all therapies is 900 patients in 2015. I have heard business is very strong and prices have been raised. Since there is no history, I prefer to keep it simple and adjust the numbers as additional information comes in. $3 million was the result of 200 patients at $8,000 plus 350 patients at $4,000. Okyanos would characterize this estimate as being conservative. We shall see.

The US dollar has already appreciated significantly as of the start of 2015 and certainly could go much higher since the rest of the world seems to be in a recession. I did not lower the numbers based on currency appreciation. I think in terms of patients treated for consumable sales and production capacity limitations for Celution 800 sales. I completely agree that until Cytori can mass produce the next generation device, sales will be constrained. Celution 800 devices can be used by Cytori, but others will prefer to wait for the $10,000 to $15,000 model.

I was guided higher on my EU number because it was too low. I failed to update the numbers for 2016 and beyond, but there is no rush.

Thanks for playing!
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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 04 Jan 2015 14:08 #3056

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Dov,
i think i'm now 16-17 years shareholder of CYTX and till beginning of 2014 we were still at 2.5$-3$...
so I'm angry and disappointed in Marc that thought he would do a great job when he became CEO of CYTX...instead we lost 75% of our value...

to be honest,I don't care anymore now...i know we will never see any gain with those directors and if we won't be bought we will be a pennystock in a few years or go BK...

but after 16 years of investing here i'm disgusted what those directors(old and new) did with all our savings/money that were invested in Cytx...

and i surely don't want them to have those proposels pass and that that they continue to rip of the shareholders and probably they will give the company away to SAbby or other hedge fund......i rather would see them go down with us if they do this...that is the only thing they deserve....

gr

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 04 Jan 2015 17:46 #3059

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Dis, could be a bit difficult to have owned CYTX for 16-17 years as it was only bought by CYTX (Macropore) in 2002. As for the sentiments expressed, I understand where they come from being a long term investor myself.

The question however that is paramount is, at this price with all the dilution that will no doubt happen and to a certain extent be necessary, is CYTX cheap? If yes, one should not sell. To take a total loss because you are upset makes no sense to me. They (management/BOD) will not go down with us. We will be the losers. They will be retained in some management capacity and/or given a golden parachute with words to the effect ..... "long and valuable contribution to the development of Cytori" etc etc.

I also am wary of Saby's intentions, and that of all hedge fund managers. However the fact is that they are players and we are pawns. At the end of the day I want to be a piece on the chessboard (even a pawn) when CYTX has won. Scleroderma is not going to be a long running trial. The clinical data to date is compelling. Going bankrupt for a measly USD 25M loan is beyond being a bad joke. If that happens I will be more than upset. I do not see the point in voting NO and accelerating/causing bankruptcy ......... but that's me ........

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 04 Jan 2015 20:20 #3060

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DOV

I do appreciate the thoughtful reply !

As far as frustration resulting in "no" votes. I am surprised that you would be surprised given what we have been told on so many fronts and broken communication promises....which, without putting words in other peoples mouths, seems to be quite a big factor. I would think some people see no difference in selling at $0.50 and selling at zero if it means FINALLY being heard !!!!!!! I am speculating of course. Surely you don't think it is the long individual shareholder that has brought the company so close to destruction. As I have posted previously I suspect the measure passes.

Since I am in full "show me" mode with what Cytori can do on the sales front I will limit my comments right now to 2 points on your interactive spread sheet. 2015 revenue projections seem reasonable. No profit before 2018 imho....assuming things do begin to change.

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 05 Jan 2015 10:37 #3068

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Dov,
You can't be srious as to why one would hold the stock if they hate the company. As a long term holder, who has made a major comitment to this POS to the tune of quater million $'s only to have my investment worth 90% less, I am holding on to a pipe dream. The $25,000 that is left at this point does nothing to get me out of the hole that I have dug for myself. My only chance at redemmtion is if this turns around. If I sell and a miricle happens and I buy back higher then I have only but myself deeper in the hole. I appreciate your projections but it is all really just bullshit at this point in time. Not sure how anyone can take anything seriously that Mark Hedrik or anyone at Cytori has to say. That would go double for you as you have been so tied in to them and were fed so much bullshit which you passed on to friends and investors, thinking that it was good reliable information. I am sure that many of them are holding on for the same reason I am unless of course they were holding warrants that expired worthless and there investments are worth zero. Don't take this the wrong way as I do not wish to place blame as we all have nobody to blame but ourselves for making a bad investment, but Cytori management did run this company into the ground on it's own so not sure how you can believe anything they say. once a liar always a liar.

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 11 Jan 2015 10:01 #3141

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It is my opinion that if Cytori's stock price recovers to the $4 area, it will do so because institutional investors have been convinced the science works and the commercialization phase has begun. Whatever progress gets us to $4 will be the same progress that gets us to $20 with just a longer time frame. The sad part is that many long time frustrated investors will exit the stock whenever their break-even point is reached.

If getting into Cytori was the first mistake, getting out early will be the second mistake.

My 5 year anniversary as a stockholder in Cytori will be June 22nd. Many of you have owned it much longer. I know it is hard to pretend, but if you had never heard of Cytori until now, would you invest for the first time? Forget all of the mistakes made over the years and ask yourself will the current management team execute on the upcoming two pivotal trials (Scleroderma and SUI)? Will the OA trial demonstrate efficacy and cartilage regrowth? Will Kerastem be successful in proving stem cell enriched fat grafting restores hair growth and hair thickness in the 40% range? Will KT Lim be successful marketing the Celution system to his licensed countries? Will the thermal burn trial sponsored by BARDA lead to FDA approvals and a government order to forward deploy the new system? Some of these questions will be answered in about a year while others will take longer.

Personally, I like Cytori's prospects going forward. Even with an expensive capital raise facing us in the next 90 days or so, I think the clinical work is powerful and the market cap is cheap. I believe the cost of capital in 2016 and 2017 will be much lower. At some point, institutional investors will value the pipeline correctly. However, past mistakes continue to plague the stock and investors will remain in a "show me" mode until after clinical results are favorable.

Hopefully Cytori will have something new in next week's Biotech Showcase presentation.

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 11 Jan 2015 10:18 #3143

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If getting into Cytori was the first mistake, getting out early will be the second mistake.


Hear hear...fully agree.

Actually- I see it as my second chance with Cytori. At least my kids have been "drilled" properly by their father and have more stock now than I have. LOL.

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 11 Jan 2015 12:32 #3146

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I have no intentions of selling this ticket. I'm tired of day trading and more than tired of having my CPA wife keep track of all that is owed to the wonderful IRS. (gotta love that 16th amendment!).

With PPS pricing the way it is now, its like a wet dream for me. I've even purchased another 5,000 shares when it was hovering at $0.47. Ideally I'd like to load up another 20,000 shares but below $0.50.

I love this technology.I love that BARDA is involved. That speaks volumes in of itself. I'm waiting for an irrational exuberance shoot up like DNDN once FDA clears this for radiation burns.......but ultimately I see a massive market cap for this patented science. They just need to build the moat, team up with bigpharma and have consumables priced exorbitantly so bigpharma is satisfied with profit taking.
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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 11 Jan 2015 14:24 #3147

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CalhounDoppelganger wrote: I have no intentions of selling this ticket. I'm tired of day trading and more than tired of having my CPA wife keep track of all that is owed to the wonderful IRS. (gotta love that 16th amendment!).

With PPS pricing the way it is now, its like a wet dream for me. I've even purchased another 5,000 shares when it was hovering at $0.47. Ideally I'd like to load up another 20,000 shares but below $0.50.

I love this technology.I love that BARDA is involved. That speaks volumes in of itself. I'm waiting for an irrational exuberance shoot up like DNDN once FDA clears this for radiation burns.......but ultimately I see a massive market cap for this patented science. They just need to build the moat, team up with bigpharma and have consumables priced exorbitantly so bigpharma is satisfied with profit taking.


._.

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 11 Jan 2015 15:05 #3148

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my reason for an investment is that the market cap is near 50Mio $ Base 100 Mio shares (or 150 Mio then 75Mio marcet cap) and the develoment of the tech at this moment.

I red in the very early phase of the animal experiments with pics and saw the results of the treated hearts. If this work in pics that must be work also with humans.....2003-2005 timeframe

i bought and sold the shares, no clear target.. Then i decided that it was to early for this tech...

Now it is clear that the tech is working in many areas..

but the market adaption is the next importend step... show me the money....

For me it is a second life time chance...

I have invested enough money, short term target is to double -- long tearn (greater 4 years) is 20 $ -- early retierement (that is my target)


holdi

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 11 Jan 2015 21:41 #3149

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DOV
Before we get too excited counting pennies before they turn into $4 or more how do we attract those institutional investors who are actually willing to hold their investment. Sabby et al sold at the first possible moment and we still seem to be working through $0.52 shares.
And even if the new buyers did hold a bit giving what I again expect to be horrible pricing on the next offering...it may well be these same institutions selling at $2 or $3 or $4 not the long suffering early believers. Lets also not forget our short selling friends !!!

Provide sales and the correct investors will follow !!!!

The academics matter little if sales don't follow.

BTW...loved the "show me" mode nod :)

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 12 Jan 2015 10:04 #3154

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Forget all of the mistakes made over the years and ask yourself will the current management team execute on the upcoming two pivotal trials (Scleroderma and SUI)?

Dov,
This is not a new management team. Hedrik is no different then any of the crooks before him, who made Cytor there own private piggy bank and misused tens of millions of dollars. Our new CFO gave the company away and now will dilute further as shares will be doubled. Of course why cut off our nose to spite our face as bankruptcy means we as shareholders have no chance of recouping losses. Now we are left to twist in the wind and rely on Marc Hedrik to lead. Has he really done anything to earn that rust, I don't think so. He has done about as much as he has to earn all his options. I guess as they are worthless then he got what he deserved. This team and company is the dictionary definition of insanity and for us to expect a different result is just that. Sorry but these guys just don't deserve a break but do deserve a serious look by the SEC, which will also never happen. So we are left to hope. As for new investors, perhaps hearing about Cytori for the first time, wait for the next round of dilution and wait for them to accomplish something, anything, as so far all we have to show for our trust is losses and broken promises.

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 04 Mar 2015 07:59 #3644

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DOV

Time to adjust the spread sheet as CYTX guiding 5-8 million product revenues in 2015 vs your current 10.8 million. Maybe they are low balling a bit but up to a 50% cut ?

2014 also missed as prelimary results are 5 million in product revenues ve spreadsheet of 6.5 million

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Interactive Long-Term Financial Projections 04 Mar 2015 12:46 #3657

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Well, at least the cash on hand is 14.6m. The deferred revenues was enough. That mean they don't need to do any dilution in 2-3 months. Add in the income from the warrants (which undoubtedly WILL be exercised if the price in April stays anywhere close to the current price) and that's another $13M. It's not income, but it is CASH.

Even with the stupid loan, that means they are going to have enough cash for almost a year of cash burn -- plenty of time for a partner for ATHENA or to start getting reimbursement for treatment for the by-then completed and approved scleroderma trials, I think.

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