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TOPIC: Q4 Actual Results

Q4 Actual Results 08 Mar 2013 05:19 #258

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Well- whatever those bimbo´s are writing on the YMB - the Q4 results were outstanding and promising.

On the partner deal explanations, I am ok. Actually what can one expect? giving a report on past negotiations? It remains top priority and getting a deal when nobody is expecting it, is fine with me. Just smart money will be invested at that point in time. :grin:

Anyway- some statements really opened my eye and I see much clearer now- actually my "guess" elsewhere on this board that-
TOOL CLAIM-TISSUE ISCHEMIA PLUS INTRAVASE = VASCULAR
was dead on and after thinking about that, I consider Cytori to be quite "lucky" :nice:

I will explain that in an editor´s note, which I will write over the week-end. :write:

And actually- I think the 15 MIO target for the year, might be rather conservative in view of the opportunities now open, due to a substantial amount of claims. I must say- I like it that way.
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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Q4 Actual Results 08 Mar 2013 07:39 #260

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***Well- whatever those bimbo´s are writing on the YMB - the Q4 results were outstanding and promising.***

Although often frustrating, there is a entertainment factor over there.

:grin:

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Q4 Actual Results 08 Mar 2013 08:59 #263

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Looking at the market action- the fence-sitters and nay-sayers have made up their mind and CC could not convince them.

:bye: :bye: :bye:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Q4 Actual Results 27 Sep 2013 20:58 #904

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Taking a little time to review what was a very good week for me...other than Cytori of course.
Since CYTX was/is the problem I've been reviewing some assumptions.

As we are about to enter Q4 I was looking here to see what others were saying when those results were released.
What little data we have had since, has all been positive although personally SUI data didnt impress me much.
Otherwise same problems remain with cash, lack of significant partners, same management and of course floundering PPS action.
Whoops...almost forgot !


Anyone who only likes glass half full comments please click off now...I'll wait !!!

:whistle:

:whistle:

:whistle:

First off... Missing the 12 million sales target for this year is looking very real to me...many will say a million here a million there doesnt matter...but if we do have a secondary at todays pricing every million equals 416K new shares that will have to be issued. Eventually it adds up ! :bang: If nothing else it would be another missed goal by management.
Second of course is the cash issue...do we simply do a straight secondary...a hybrid solution that has another small partner deal and then raise funds or maybe the deal itself has a stock sale in it. Right now a larger partnership deal still is looking distant...at least beyond our current Nov. 30 deadline.
Thirdly...it is interesting what current 2014 revenues look like from analyst as posted on Yahoo..13.3 to 40.9 million...talk about all over the map. To me, this says they arent so sure what and when things exactly happen either...despite 2 recent $10 PPS targets in recent reports for next year.

So what does it all mean ?

I think we are still early and are years away from serious revenues that can predict a solid upward path.
Disclaimer: By serious revenues I mean from paying patients and insurance companies...I believe Wall St will give far more value to these revenues than to revenues obtained from various small studies.

If someone wants to complain this post is just negative...well I perfer realistic..but you wer warned to click off ahead of time...LOL
If someone has a theory on how serious revenues can be obtained in a fashion that Wall St recognizes that gets us to analyst $10 targets I would love to discuss further...otherwise I still think (esp after the August call) that single digits are again in store for all of 2014.

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Q4 Actual Results 28 Sep 2013 10:42 #905

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Good post Hedge.

During the intermissions of watching MLB.com tonight, I will deliberate where the revenues can be coming from and why we have the mess we have. :KO:

The results I will post tomorrow. :bye:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Q4 Actual Results 29 Sep 2013 07:52 #907

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It is Sunday- so there we go-

First off... Missing the 12 million sales target for this year is looking very real to me...many will say a million here a million there doesnt matter...but if we do have a secondary at todays pricing every million equals 416K new shares that will have to be issued.


I do not see why you would question that- Management has said the bulk would be H2 and the reiterated the 12 Mio in the last call. So I stick with that- remember - nobody believed Q4 numbers would be achieved- they were.

Second of course is the cash issue...do we simply do a straight secondary...a hybrid solution that has another small partner deal and then raise funds or maybe the deal itself has a stock sale in it. Right now a larger partnership deal still is looking distant...at least beyond our current Nov. 30 deadline.


Yes- this is the key issue- if no partner- of course they have to do a secondary. For me it is difficult to comprehend the inability of CC to get this done. In the past I speculated that his asking prices are too high. At least one story I have heard- which I cannot disclose- seems to confirm that. In general- large pharma concludes deals when market entry seems assured and as we know that is the case with several apps in Europe. At present Cytori has NO commercial organization to speak of. So -certainly after divesting the cosmetic business- they appear to rely on future partners to do that. That again means- IF a partner deal is concluded on an app with market authorization, the revenues will come from the same direction. Until that time- it will be limited to supplying investigators.

Thirdly...it is interesting what current 2014 revenues look like from analyst as posted on Yahoo..13.3 to 40.9 million...talk about all over the map. To me, this says they arent so sure what and when things exactly happen either...despite 2 recent $10 PPS targets in recent reports for next year.


See my answer on two. Another source could be cardiac. Big question is- how big and where are these 8 cardiac studies, which are in a late stage? I can imagine APOLLO hospitals for instance. In case this would be correct- I can imagine fast approval from Indian authorities and competition coming up for Okyanos very fast. Where in the world could they be except in countries where there is both a need and an "accommodating" regulatory environment? This also could lead to fast revenues, just like I believe those to exist in Japan for several apps if the legislation there is approved next month.

But yes- key in partner deal. :evil:

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

Q4 Actual Results 01 Oct 2013 08:36 #908

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Unless CC has really underestimated what the Q4 sales he is expecting... in a first ever attempt to under promise, over deliver, then yes I believe they will be light....however, I also believe part of the problem will be revenue recognition on the sales.

As far as past potential deals failing to materialize...I agree price has been a factor, regulation uncertainties, lack of skill of Cytori management for the process, CC haunted by the past of horrible deals....and more recently I have begun to think that potential partners just may not like CC very much. Couldnt imagine why, LOL !!! I would also add Cytori has never been in a position of strength with never much more than 6 months of cash on the books.

Cardiac has the biggest potential to boost sales with the biggest price tag consumable but the ongoing studies for this app are all likely quite small in nature. India as a source for bigger sales in this app ? Doing the math on say a 100 patient studay only adds so much. 2 years ago I pointed out that India was a mess financially and it is a much bigger mess today making world headlines. Funding a larger study there may indeed be a good investment for them but the will to really push this thru to the mainstream populas where reimbursement pays the bill or the upper cast says I dont care ...I will pay the cost is quite a leap near term imho. Again..I point to actual paying patient revenue being more highly valued than study revenue. That said...right now...we are looking for enough revenues to at least eliminate the cash burn and that equals thousands of patients a year. I fear without a partner with sales skill Cytori isnt up to the task. I still wonder about our last VP with a International Human resources title.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts Fas.

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