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TOPIC: 200 DMA on Dow and NASDAQ

200 DMA on Dow and NASDAQ 03 Oct 2019 09:36 #13273

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Players defending the 200DMA's on DOW and NASDAQ as market close to oversold at lows.
Lets see how they close today and the week.

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200 DMA on Dow and NASDAQ 04 Oct 2019 09:00 #13274

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As of 10:00 am today Oct. 4th, the Dow at 26,375 exceeds the 200 DMA of 25,866, but still trails the 50 DMA of 26,499.

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200 DMA on Dow and NASDAQ 05 Oct 2019 05:55 #13275

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rodney.strongg wrote: As of 10:00 am today Oct. 4th, the Dow at 26,375 exceeds the 200 DMA of 25,866, but still trails the 50 DMA of 26,499.

/

Close on Friday of 26,573 exceeded the 50 DMA as well - let's see what it all means going forward!:grin:

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200 DMA on Dow and NASDAQ 05 Oct 2019 07:46 #13276

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Next week is a whole new set of circumstances. This trade is over.
Last week the sharp dip was followed by some major buy programs that ended Thursday green followed by Fridays news that employment isn't falling off a cliff. Which isn't all that surprising as recent history often has ADP numbers weaker than actual Fed. data. One could have followed the money and had a decent 2 days.
On top of that, if players want to support the market they had better propped it up before the China trade talks this week as a buffer. Now there is some breathing room.
Barring something out of the blue, China is the story next week. Oh. while on the subject of trade, curious that the EU didn't retaliate against the tariffs placed on them last week.

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200 DMA on Dow and NASDAQ 05 Oct 2019 14:12 #13277

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myownhedgefund wrote: Next week is a whole new set of circumstances. This trade is over.
Last week the sharp dip was followed by some major buy programs that ended Thursday green followed by Fridays news that employment isn't falling off a cliff. Which isn't all that surprising as recent history often has ADP numbers weaker than actual Fed. data. One could have followed the money and had a decent 2 days.
On top of that, if players want to support the market they had better propped it up before the China trade talks this week as a buffer. Now there is some breathing room.
Barring something out of the blue, China is the story next week. Oh. while on the subject of trade, curious that the EU didn't retaliate against the tariffs placed on them last week.

/

Lack of EU retaliation is not surprising at all - they know full well where their bread is buttered! in more ways than one.

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200 DMA on Dow and NASDAQ 05 Oct 2019 19:17 #13278

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RS
While our (the US) relationship with Europe is certainly different than that with China I don't believe your statement was the primary factor.

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200 DMA on Dow and NASDAQ 06 Oct 2019 04:31 #13279

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The command lines in the EU are "slightly" more complex- they will come at the same effective date- rest assured.

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200 DMA on Dow and NASDAQ 06 Oct 2019 05:43 #13280

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myownhedgefund wrote: RS
While our (the US) relationship with Europe is certainly different than that with China I don't believe your statement was the primary factor.

/

HF - check how many EU Countries over the years have not paid their defense fee allotments while the US has had to make up the difference?:yep:

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200 DMA on Dow and NASDAQ 06 Oct 2019 07:29 #13281

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Fas, agree that may ultimately happen. The article I read has stated that the EU decided NOT to retaliate but certainly that view could easily change. Especially if talks happen and quickly fail.
RS, still not buying your argument as a major factor.

In expanding my thoughts;
I don't think the EU wants to get into a tick for tack situation right now. Especially with emotions high at the White House due to domestic Issues or the result the Chinese recently got with their tariff expansion. Secondly, the EU economy is having a harder time right now than here in the US so round after round of tariffs wont help on that front. Thirdly, while extensive, the tariffs we imposed could have been worse with some noted areas spared such as French champagne or Italy entirely. Circling back to RS's argument, Italy has a host of fiscal problems and certainly they are behind on their NATO payments, so why spare them ?
Anyway, it was also curious that Airbus (which is what started this) got a lower tariff rate than other items.

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200 DMA on Dow and NASDAQ 06 Oct 2019 09:47 #13282

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HF, the last summary that I saw of Countries that met their NATO goal on defense spending of 2% of GDP showed only 5 out of 28 Countries meeting the goal with the US by far the largest positive contributor.

It seems to me that the defense dollar shortfalls far outweigh any trade impact.

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200 DMA on Dow and NASDAQ 06 Oct 2019 10:34 #13283

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Hedge- I do recall having seen a gigantic Parmesan cheese as an image on the front page of our local newspaper after the US reactions on the WTO news came out - maybe that just was an assumption, I do not know, since as an macro-economist by education (but never practiced what I learned) I totally lost interest in those things. Probably since I am totally biased- since I see the whole world as potential resources for the betterment of mankind and not nations. So- from that perspective, the only good thing can be free trade.

Rodney- on the military spending- any percentage of military spending of national budgets, I see as a waste of money, but realize that is wishful thinking. The Germans even bowed gracefully to certain demands and have a plan to up the % of GNP to pre-established NATO goals. But, that surely will take a few years. :whistle:

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200 DMA on Dow and NASDAQ 06 Oct 2019 11:45 #13284

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Fas, agree true free trade is likely the best policy but no one practices it. Not even the USA.
The two barriers that immediately come to mind are maintaining a vibrant middle class and deflation, the latter of which also has a demographic component imho.

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200 DMA on Dow and NASDAQ 06 Oct 2019 12:13 #13285

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Hedge- am not so sure about that. Ages ago- 5 -10 years???? I already took note that in developed countries the service sector had by far the largest employment percentages i.e. doctors treating the "victims" of the food/pharma industry etc etc and the service sector is not dependent on imports all that much. Deflation is what no one wants- controlled inflation (i.e. < 2%) is the goal in most places - rightly so. Anyway- already 40 years ago - in Holland there was a think-tank on what to do when robots took over mining of raw materials and the up-stream processes to the end products. The answer for people was either pay them to be willing to not go to work or service other folks. What happened is clear- for goods the best thing is free trade- for services there is no issue in my view.

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Board moderator and Site-owner. I still regret the day I started analysing the prospects of MacroPore (now Cytori) back in 2004- a left-over from the tech-bubble at that time from the century change in my portfolio- and became addicted to Cytori´s fat cell technology. :cry:

200 DMA on Dow and NASDAQ 06 Oct 2019 17:07 #13286

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I think we are about 80% on the same page Fas.
While I agree manufacturing as taken second place to services in the developed world but what is left is exactly where you find tariffs. The auto sector is a prime example.
I also agree deflation is the demon we are fighting right now. It is imported through low wage countries that now manufacture but the demographic component is also real in the west where the percentage of a older population is increasing. Their buying needs are different. Look at countries with large young populations...you can still find inflation there.
Robotics will be a massive change that will need to be dealt with. Dangerous jobs will not be the only ones at risk as low skill will also disappear. I read this past week that 30% of banking jobs will disappear by 2030 and be replaced by robots. They are even making their way into health care at the lower end.

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